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A leading think-tank has warned that a tough international response to North Korea's missile launch last Sunday could be counter-productive. 

In its latest report, North Korea's Missile Launch: The Risks of Overreaction, the International Crisis Group, an influential Brussels-based non-profit institute that advises governments and NGOs on conflict resolution, said that a strong response would likely result in the demise of talks to end Pyongyang's nuclear programme.

The report also said such a move could risk a potentially devastating war, damaging to South Korea, Japan, and the already-battered world economy.

North Korea has threatened to take "strong steps" if the United Nations censures its rocket launch. These steps may include walking out off the six-nation nuclear disarmament talks. 


In a statement released to the media, Gareth Evans, the outgoing CEO and president of the ICG, said that "[the missile launch] would only slightly increase security risks, while an overblown response would likely jeopardise the six-party talks to end North Korea's nuclear programme. 

"What is needed is a calm, coordinated response from the key actors to raise pressure on Pyongyang to return to the talks rather than a divided reaction that only fulfils the North's desire to widen splits among its neighbours."

The think-tank argued that the rocket launch fits a pattern of North Korean attention-seeking when faced with stresses at home, political changes abroad or failure to get what they want through negotiations. 

Speaking to Gulf News from Seoul, Daniel Pinkston, ICG's Deputy Programme Director for North East Asia, said that there was a need for "a cooling off period"."North Korea is undergoing some political changes right now. New people are being appointed in key posts. [US President Barack] Obama is also reviewing his policy on the country. So is South Korea. The international community should let things settle down."

Pinkston said that there might not be any strong response that is effective, adding that North Korea would only get an excuse to reconstitute its nuclear programme. 

Asked what action the international community must take, he said: "We must ensure the full implementation of resolutions 1695 [which blocks shipment of missile parts to North Korea and demands that the country halt its missile programme] and 1718 [which imposes a series of economic and commercial sanctions on Pyongyang]. 

There is some evidence of North Korea's missile cooperation with some countries. If there indeed is such a violation, not just North Korea but also the other country should be subjected to punishment."

 UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon says a two-day suspension of offensives against Tamil Tiger rebels to enable tens of thousands of trapped civilians to leave the war zone is less than what he had called for" a humanitarian pause of several days.

But, he said it is a "useful first step and an opportunity to move towards the peaceful and orderly end to the fighting now so badly needed."

Ban in his statement, called on both sides to respect the pause diligently and said the rebels must allow the civilians to move out of the zone while the government must treat them in accordance with international standards.

The UN says about 100,000 civilians are trapped in the war zone with dozens dying every day.

THE embattled Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, announced a state of emergency in Bangkok and surrounding regions yesterday as anti-Government demonstrators tried to storm the Interior Ministry and police began arresting the protest leaders who shut down the weekend ASEAN summit.


Mr Abhisit, a relative novice, was humiliated by the summit's failure and has seen charges of gross incompetence levelled against him and the security forces who were supposed to protect the five-star hotel where the Association of South-East Asian Nations summit was being held in the beach resort of Pattaya.


``The Government has tried all along to avoid violence but the protest has developed and they [the protesters] have used actions incompatible with the constitution,'' Mr Abhisit said in a televised speech. ``Now the Government is unable to avoid this state of emergency''.